When the NFL time table got here out again in Might, a number of video games have been turned around and regarded as “must-see” matchups, however the Washington Commanders going at the street to play the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6 used to be no longer one in every of them.
On the other hand, with how issues have performed out for each groups throughout the first 5 weeks of the season, the fight between Baltimore (3-2) and Washington (4-1) has all at once develop into the only recreation enthusiasts do not need to pass over. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is taking part in at an MVP-caliber stage, and the similar may well be stated for Commanders rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels.
Sure, a rookie has entered the MVP dialog. Whether or not he is nonetheless in it Monday morning may just rely at the consequence of Sunday’s recreation.
ODDS AND TRENDS
It used to be anticipated that the Ravens would identify themselves as Tremendous Bowl contenders, however few noticed Washington rising as one of the crucial ultimate groups within the NFC. Bettors were satisfied to get at the back of the Commanders, with 64 % of the maintain and 71 % of the bets backing Washington +7 (-112) over at DraftKings.
As for moneyline tickets, DraftKings has noticed 67 % of the bets on Baltimore’s moneyline (-325), however 68 % of the maintain is on Washington’s (+260).
Bettors predict a shootout between the league’s highest-scoring groups — the Commanders rank first with 31.0 issues in keeping with recreation whilst the Ravens are in moment with 29.4. DraftKings has noticed 68 % of the wagers and 80 % of the maintain at the over (-110), with the entire set at 51.5 issues.
So, will have to bettors soar at the bandwagon and put cash at the Commanders? Neatly, the general public used to be simply 5-7 towards the unfold final week and is 29-42-3 for the season, in step with Sports activities Having a bet Dime. Week 4 is the one week the place the general public had a profitable document, 8-7-1.
PROP PICKS
–Jayden Daniels, O/U 225.5 passing yards at -130/+100
Daniels has long past over this mark in each and every of his previous 4 video games, however he is averaged 237.8 yards all through that span, which doesn’t depart a lot room for error. Whilst the Ravens’ move protection is among the worst within the league (280.2 passing yards allowed in keeping with recreation), that stat is deceptive as a result of fighters have steadily needed to throw to take care of.
Making an allowance for it may well be laborious for the Commanders to determine the bottom recreation towards a Baltimore workforce with the stiffest run protection within the NFL (60.4 speeding yards allowed in keeping with recreation), Daniels goes to have to transport the ball throughout the air, making us lean towards the over.
–Derrick Henry, O/U 87.5 yards speeding at -120/-110
Search for the Ravens to make use of the run to open up the passing recreation, that means a heavy dose of Henry early and continuously.
Henry has rushed for no less than 92 yards in each and every of his previous 3 video games, a stretch that features a pair of 100-yard showings at the flooring. Take the over right here.
KEY STAT
When liked by way of over 3 issues within the common season, Jackson is solely 21-31 ATS. When the unfold is 3 issues or much less in desire of Baltimore or has the Ravens as underdogs, Jackson has long past 25-5 ATS.
THE NEWS
All eyes might be at the ability underneath middle when the Commanders and Ravens collide, and it is not laborious to grasp why.
Jackson is the reigning MVP and is taking part in like any person who’s intent on being a back-to-back winner. Daniels has been one of the crucial environment friendly and thrilling gamers within the NFL this season — and he is only a rookie! His recreation has been so spectacular that he these days has the fifth-best odds at DraftKings to win MVP (+1000).
Each are taking part in at a top and related stage:
–Jackson is averaging 241.2 passing yards in keeping with recreation (Daniels 227.0)
–Jackson is averaging 72.6 speeding yards in keeping with recreation (Daniels 60.0)
–Jackson has a 107.3 passer ranking (Daniels 106.3)
–Daniels has finished 77.1 % of his passes (Jackson 65.3)
–Daniels has a 73.2 QBR (Jackson 67.1)
With the 2 quarterbacks taking part in so smartly, one thing else should issue into the sport’s consequence, barring both participant making an uncharacteristic mistake. As the most important because the operating recreation has been for each groups, you should take a look at the operating backs.
Baltimore has a resurgent Henry main the best way, whilst Washington might be with out its best operating again, Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) — each former Alabama stars.
Outdoor of the offensive playmakers, there is additionally nonetheless so much to be told about each and every workforce’s protection. From a statistical standpoint, it’s laborious to mention who has the merit and simply how excellent (or unhealthy) both unit is. Sure, the Ravens’ protection ranks second-to-last in passing, however is that as a result of a vulnerable secondary or as a result of groups cannot run towards them?
Equivalent questions may also be requested concerning the Commanders, however to not the similar extent (No. 12 towards the move, No. 21 towards the run).
INJURY REPORT
Along with being with out Robinson, Washington would possibly not have protection Tyler Owens as a result of a shin damage.
The Ravens have 5 gamers indexed as questionable, a gaggle that incorporates cornerback Marlon Humphrey (ankle), offensive take on Ronnie Stanley (toe) and guard Sala Aumavae-Laulu (again).
PREDICTION
This recreation will move one in every of two techniques: the Baltimore offense will bulldoze the Commanders’ protection and the Ravens will win with ease, or Washington’s offense will stay the Ravens’ protection off-balance and personal time of ownership. We predict the guests stay it shut and provides themselves an opportunity to win.
Ravens 28, Commanders 23
–Travis Pulver, Box Stage Media
