The penalty used to be invented in England on February 14, 1891. It used to be the closing minute of an FA Cup quarter-final between Notts County and Stoke Town when a defender for County stopped a shot at the line along with his hand. Stoke had been awarded a loose kick simply centimeters from the goal-line, and the goalkeeper, as used to be completely criminal on the time, stood proper in entrance of the ball. The Stoke participant, not able to do anything else as opposed to kick it immediately at him, noticed his shot blocked in farcical cases.
At a next assembly of the Global Soccer Affiliation board in Glasgow on June 2, 1891, a movement for a brand new penalty-kick rule used to be advised by way of the Irish FA. The board licensed and, identical to that, many years of anguish and pleasure had been born. Form of. The unique rule mentioned that avid gamers may just take a penalty “from any level 12 yards from the goal-line” and the keeper may just advance a minimum of 6 yards to reserve it. However, over the years, that has been tweaked and finessed into what we all know and love/hate nowadays.
The possibility of any penalty being scored is round 70 %. On the 2022 International Cup, 22 of the 29 in-game consequences awarded had been scored (76 %). Till the start of this 12 months’s Euros, 88 consequences have been awarded within the pageant, with 62 scored (70 %). Penalty shootouts—presented into the Euros in 1976 and the International Cup in 1978—even have more or less the similar conversion price. In International Cup shootouts, 222 consequences out of 320 had been a hit (69 %). In Euros shootouts, the conversion price is a little bit upper: 178 out of 232 (77 %).
However why should consequences be taken from 12 yards? Easy: That’s what the FA made up our minds in 1891. And it’s most probably by no means been modified, as a result of scoring seven out of each and every 10 consequences provides a just right mixture of possibility, praise, and drama.
Transfer the ball any nearer or farther away and the percentages begin to tip too some distance in some way. As John Wesson issues out in The Science of Football, taking into consideration air drag, a wonderfully directed “penalty” hit at 80 mph into the highest nook of the target may just, in idea, defeat a goalkeeper from 35 yards. Transfer 10 yards or nearer to the target and the possibility of scoring rises ceaselessly. At 3 yards, it’s nearly 100%.
Reputedly by way of fluke, 12 yards is just about the candy spot: Sufficient consequences cross in to praise talent and just right placement, and sufficient consequences are stored to praise just right guesswork, analysis, and agility by way of goalkeepers. Of the ones 88 in-game Euro consequences awarded sooner than the 2024 match, best 18 had been stored. England’s Jordan Pickford is one goalkeeper who has used previous conduct of penalty takers and their most popular target placements to expect their long run alternatives, maintaining this knowledge on his bottle for reference.
For a striker, depending on physics to attain the very best penalty is all about two issues: velocity and course. At 80 mph, a goalkeeper has about one-third of a 2d to make a save. As that is very similar to their response time, the one probability of it being stored is to wager as it should be the place it’s going. And that’s the place placement is available in. Analysis performed by way of the College of Tub in 2012 discovered a “diving envelope” that any given keeper can duvet in the event that they push off in any course with most drive. The chance of scoring within the diving envelope is 50 %. The chance of scoring out of doors the diving envelope is 80 %.
