At the floor, Cody Bellinger’s lifestyles is set to recover it doesn’t matter what. He was once a down-ballot MVP candidate final season who’s heading into loose company, in addition to a former MVP and Rookie of the Yr. He would had been categorised a unicorn again within the day, given his talent to play Gold Glove-level protection in centerfield and in the beginning base, except for that Shohei Ohtani has now redefined what unicorn manner in baseball. Bellinger is simplest 28, and almost definitely nonetheless has some high years left. Usually, this type of man would get a fanbase all hopped up on goofballs with the inside track of his signing.
And Bellinger gets his cash. But if studying up on the place he could be going, or what he could be getting presented, there’s an undertone of warning or hesitancy, which sounds lovely rattling bizarre for a man who can play the ones two positions whilst slugging .525. And once more, at age 28. Cue the Seinfeld voice, “What’s the deal?”
For one, Bellinger simplest had one just right season after the 2 seasons the place he was once disappointment and melancholy in human shape. Maximum attributed that to shoulder and knee accidents he picked up in 2020, however he’s nonetheless the man in 2021 who submit a 47 wRC+ and an 83 in 2022. It was once u-g-l-y, despite the fact that Bellinger had an alibi. Nonetheless, the ones seasons aren’t some distance sufficient previously to be forgotten.
There also are some blinking lighting about his comeback season with the Chicago Cubs final season. The nice is that his energy returned. To not the degrees of his ROY or MVP season, however that .525 slugging mark is an antihistamine quantity (to not be sneezed at! I’ll display myself out). And once more, to reiterate, a man who may give that roughly energy whilst taking part in two positions just about flawlessly is an absolute stone whinge of a participant to have. Bellinger was once additionally in a position to chop his strikeouts down considerably, from over 25 % within the earlier two campaigns to only 15.6 % final yr. Energy, protection, self-discipline on the plate, that is getting lovely appetizing, proper?
The issue for some when learning Bellinger is that his touch numbers are simply truly bizarre. As a result of Bellinger didn’t hit the ball very not easy in any respect. His reasonable go out pace of 87.9 was once simply the twenty second percentile. His barrel charge was once within the twenty seventh percentile. His hard-hit charge was once simply the tenth percentile. His anticipated batting reasonable was once some 30 issues less than his precise, and his anticipated slugging was once just about 100 issues less than his precise. It’s abnormal. Belinger’s BABIP was once .319, a career-high and 34 issues above his profession reasonable. However .319 isn’t some mutated general this is so out of line with the standard .300 you in finding across the league. It is going to almost definitely come down, however now not in a violent swing. Perhaps. Who can are expecting?
The excellent news for Bellinger and whoever indicators him is that when he returned from a knee harm in June that brought about him to omit a month, his go out pace higher each and every month from there on out, capping at 89.7 MPH in September. His barrel charge didn’t creep up at reasonably the similar charge, however nonetheless progressed as he were given farther clear of that harm layoff.
Every other alternate for Bellinger in 2023 was once simply how a lot touch he made, particularly within the strike zone. Bellinger made touch on 87 % of the swings he took on pitches within the zone, a career-high by way of a distance. He additionally made extra touch on pitches outdoor the zone than he ever had prior to. Bellinger’s swing charge was once in keeping with what he’d performed in ‘21 and ‘22, however we all know what the ones seasons had been. It’s the primary time he’d proven that roughly bat-to-ball abilities since his MVP season. Is that this the brand new commonplace or will whiffs come again into his sport?
Every other warning call is that top pace were given by way of Bellinger. All over his MVP season in 2019, on fastballs 95 MPH or over, Bellinger hit .278 and slugged .611. Closing yr? .203 and .362. And his anticipated numbers recommend he was once very fortunate to get to even the ones ranges on top rate warmth. That’s not prone to recover as he strikes in opposition to and into his 30s. Drop that down measure to 93 MPH or upper, which is just about everybody’s fastball outdoor of Kyle Hendricks, and the numbers tick as much as .254 BA and .485 SLG. Can conclude that Bellinger may nonetheless get to just right fastballs, however the rest higher and it was once a fight.
At the turn aspect, Bellinger completely murdered off-speed pitches final yr, to the song of a .630 slugging and .458 wOBA. However what number of of the ones is he going to look going ahead given what everybody can see he does towards plus warmth?
The ground on Bellinger is a plus-plus glove mixed with, possibly, a consultant quantity of manufacturing on the plate, however wanting the star-level that we noticed final yr. He simply doesn’t hit the ball very not easy at this time. He’ll stroll sufficient and now not strike out sufficient to make that OK. However that pop-gun touch may simply grow to be far more outs than it did final yr. Or he may signal with the Yankees and simply loop 30-35 homers over that canine park fence they installed proper box and no person’s going to truly care. Put him in Oracle Park 81 occasions a yr and ask him to visit fight towards breezes coming in off the cove, and that’s a unique tale. He additionally hasn’t confirmed in a couple of years now that he can keep wholesome for 162.
There are extra questions underneath the skin about forking out for Bellinger than you could assume given the headlines on his baseball card. He’ll get his cash evidently, the loose agent elegance simply isn’t that just right and he sticks out. Whether or not lovers of that group are tilting their heads at him in two or 3 years or faster…
Practice Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and on Bluesky @felsgate.bsky.social
